The single biggest factor determining the success of failure of hybrid and electric car technology is not tax incentives, battery prices and technology, legislation, new model introductions, or infrastructure. A gas price is the biggest factor. When it comes to green vehicles, the price at the pumps is the elephant in the room. The cost of oil is not only determinant the pump’s prices, for instance, there’s refining capacity of lack thereof – but oil does play a major role. When the price of oil over than $147 in 2008, gas prices raced to $4 per gallon.
Unfortunately, it’s not easy to predict the most important factor for customer adoption of hybrid electric vehicles. What are experts saying nowadays?
Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch & Associates, said crude could be pushed toward the $75 mark. Ryoma Furumi, Japanese broker, said oil prices will stay range bound at $70-$75 a barrel. And an analyst at Mirae Asset Securities said prices are likely to consolidate between $65 and $75.
The energy consulting firm, Verleger, predict a drop in oil into the $30s this year. The firm bases this prediction on crude stockpiles in the United State being 14 percent higher than a year ago, and gasoline supplies up by 2.2 percent. Also, OPEC is currently pumping 600,000 barrels a day more than the world needs.
Meanwhile, the CEO of French oil giant Total, Christophe de Margerie, this week said he sees a risk of oil rebounding to $100 a barrel unless there’s greater investment in exploration. De Margerie said, “The reserves of oil are there but if you don’t invest they don’t come on the market.” His warned of a possible oil shortage between now and 2015 if immediate action is not taken to invest in exploration.
In other words, the professionals don’t have a clue. Short of raising gas taxes or setting a gas price floor-extremely not likely anytime soon in the United State-auto manufacturer planners need to plan for low, medium, and high fuel cost scenarios. Eventually, major global automobiles are moving forward with plans to ‘compress’ new greener advanced technology automobiles. But Priuses, Volts, Karmas, Insights, and Leafs are little more than an insurance policy in the event of high gas prices. Auto managements make big promises for rolling out hybrids and plug-in cars in big numbers, but if oil prices keep on “range bound” at current or lower levels, don’t hold your breath for the greener cars’ new age.
After you read the List of Hybrid Vans, you may read my other articles such as: Daimler Hybrid, Toyota Highlander Hybrid, Audi Q7, Chevy Hybrid Truck, Chevrolet Aveo, BMW X6, Infiniti M35, 2011 Mini Cooper, Hybrid Car Pros and Cons, 2011 Lexus CT 200h, 2011 Lexus LS 600h, BMW Vision, 2011 BMW 5 Series Hybrid, Used Hybrid Car-1, Used Hybrid Car-2, Used Hybrid Cars, Hybrid Car Engine, Used Automobiles, Hybrid Vans, and Hybrid Pickups.
Source: HybridCars.com
