It’s commonly reported that lithium ion batteries will usher in a new era of electric cars and plug-in hybrids. Not exactly, says John German, the engineer who literally wrote the book about hybrid cars for the Society of Automotive Engineers.
After 11 years at Honda, German now serves as a senior fellow for the International Council for Clean Transportation. In an interview with HybridCars.com, German said the next wave of lithium ion batteries will not significantly reduce the cost of electric cars, but they could make conventional hybrids ubiquitous.
In German’s view, the chief benefit of new lithium ion batteries is their greatly enhanced power capabilities—the rate at which energy can go in and out of the battery. “But they don’t store any more energy than the current lithium ion batteries do,” said German, “What we are looking at is a battery which is perfect for conventional hybrids.”
HybridCars.com: Why will the new breed of lithium ion batteries be a bigger benefit to conventional hybrids rather than plug-in hybrids and electric cars?
German: The next generation of lithium ion batteries will reduce the cost of the battery pack for conventional hybrids, but they’re not going to reduce the cost of the battery pack for plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles. In effect, these batteries will increase the cost differential between conventional hybrids and plug-in hybrids. That’s going to make it harder for plug-in hybrids to compete with conventional hybrids.
Walk me through the energy and power requirements for the two different categories of vehicles.
For plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles, it’s all about the range. You need a certain amount of energy to drive a certain distance [before needing to recharge]. That’s independent of the battery chemistry. If the new lithium ion chemistry doesn’t store any more energy than your old lithium ion chemistry, then you need just as much battery to drive that distance.
And with conventional hybrids, you don’t need nearly as much energy.
The battery packs in all existing hybrids, up until the new BMW ActiveHybrid 7 are oversized. The reason they’re oversized is that with nickel metal hydride [the technology used in today’s hybrids], you’re limited in how fast you can take energy in and out of a battery without causing significant deterioration. So these batteries are not sized for the energy [storage] requirements. They are sized for the power requirements, so they can deliver enough power without significant deterioration. As a consequence, they hold a lot more energy than they really need to.
With the new high-power lithium ion batteries, they can cut them down to their actual energy requirements and still get all the power they need.
So, with the new lithium ion batteries, the difference in cost between conventional hybrids and gas-powered vehicles could come in line?
In another 10 to 15 years, we should be at the point where the mainstream customer, the average customer, will accept the cost of a hybrid system.
Meaning, maybe a couple of hundred dollars more than a conventional car?
Well, $1,000 to $1,500 more. There’s enough benefit for mainstream customers to accept it.
How rapid will the transition from nickel metal hydride to lithium ion batteries be for conventional hybrids?
It’s a function of sales volume. The current generation of lithium ion batteries is not any cheaper than nickel metal hydride. And they’re not proven. With a lot of the lithium ion chemistries, just sitting and doing nothing in hot weather will degrade the battery pack. The batteries will not last as long in Phoenix as Minneapolis. There’s risk with durability and reliability.
In lower volume applications, new hybrids just coming out, carmakers know they’re not going to be able to capture larger market share right away. So they’re going to be lithium ion batteries starting tomorrow [See Mercedes S400 Hybrid and BMW ActiveHybrid 7]. You don’t have a large volume, so your risk is minimized and you’ve gained experience. It’s going to be cheaper in the long run, and you want to gain experience. So, you’ll see very few new hybrids using nickel metal hydride.
The problem is with high volume existing hybrids. When you’re selling hundreds of thousands of Priuses globally every year, if you encounter something wrong with the lithium ion battery pack, your exposure is enormous. The high volume hybrid applications are going to go to lithium ion last. But even the high volume ones will get there by 2015 or so.
What’s your feeling about the cost per kilowatt-hour of lithium ion batteries? What are they now and where do they need to be?
I thought they were $1,000 per kilowatt-hour, but I’m hearing that it may be more like $700. It’s hard to determine the long-term price potential. They shouldn’t have much trouble getting down to about $320 per kilowatt-hour. It’s going to take a while, but with higher volumes and better production methods, $320 is achievable in the 2018 to 2020 time frame.
The real question is how low can you drive it. I’ve seen some people suggest that the lowest could be $250 to maybe $175.
At $250, doesn’t mean that plug-in cars become affordable?
No. At $250 per kilowatt-hour, the pay back is roughly similar to the hybrid vehicles of about five years ago. So there’s your market, about 3 percent.
If lithium ion batteries bring the plug-in market to 2 or 3 percent, where will conventional hybrids go?
I’ll stick my neck out and say that by sometime around 2025 or 2030, conventional hybrids will be over 70 percent of the market.
And a fairly steady ramp up from now until then?
Yes. It will be a curve. Something like a doubling of hybrid sales every three to five years. There’s no doubt in my mind that by 2030 that hybrids will be in more than half the vehicles sold in the US. I would be astounded if they weren’t. By 2020, I would say we’d be somewhere in the 10 – 15 percent range.
And President Obama’s goal for 1 million plug-in hybrids by 2015?
From its inception, the Chevy Volt was designed to travel 40 miles without using a drop of gasoline. General Motors drew the line in the sand, citing studies that show the majority of US drivers, on average, travel less than 40 miles per day. In a refrain repeated over and over again by GM executives, and bandied about in advertising, the company has held firm to its promise of 40 miles of electric driving before the small onboard engine would be called into service.
However, one year prior to its release, journalists are discovering that the Chevy Volt will fall short of the 40 miles of all-electric range under a number of conditions.
Edmunds’ John O’Dell yesterday took a brief test drive of the Chevy Volt, and grilled Chevy Volt Chief Engineer Andrew Farah. O’Dell discovered that the 2011 will indeed deliver 40 miles of battery-only range on the EPA city cycle, a driving circuit with an average speed of just under 20 mph. But the Chevy Volt’s battery range will be diminished under these conditions:
Aggressive acceleration
Sustain high-speed driving
Exceptionally hot or cold ambient temperatures
Driving in hilly or mountainous terrain
O’Dell writes, “If you pull out of the driveway with a full charge, hop on an uncrowded freeway and motor away at 65 miles an hour, you won’t get 40 miles on battery power alone.”
Does It Matter?
From the beginning, the 40-mile number seemed arbitrary. After all, how many Volt owners are going to complain if the engine comes on after 38 miles or 35 miles? The Chevy Volt is expected to be the only mainstream relatively affordableplug-in hybrid on the market—it goes on sale in late 2010—with anywhere near 40 miles of all-electric range for quite some time.
But if Chevy Hybrid Cars does fall short of 40 miles of electric range, and 35 or 30 miles proves to be enough for satisfied owners, it begs the question of how much all-electric range is needed after all. Earlier this year, researchers from Carnegie Melon University found that the extra cost and weight of batteries needed for 40 miles of all-electric range are cost-prohibitive. Researchers said, “Large-capacity plug-in hybrids sized for 40 or more miles of electric-only travel are not cost-effective in any scenario.”
This Chevy Hybrid Car is expected to cost about $40,000. Could GM reduce the cost of the Volt—and potentially sell more units maybe even at a profit—by downsizing the battery pack to allow for 30, 20, or even 10 miles of all-electric range? Does it strike a better balance between cost and EV-range to tap into gasoline when needed throughout the driving cycle—the “blended” approach expected from Ford and Toyota, as well as GM’s own future plug-in hybrid SUV? Or maybe those who must have a long all-electric range would be happy to pay $10,000 less and give up the ability to take their electric car on long-range trips? The Nissan Leaf is expected to sell in the low $30,000s and will never use a drop of gasoline, because it’s purely electric and doesn’t have a gas engine.
The new era of plug-in hybrids and electric cars will bring these questions and many more. Perhaps the biggest question—at least for GM one year before the release of the Chevy Volt—is whether or not it should continue to make the 40-mile claim when it might not be true for many of its owners.
Infiniti M35 Hybrid: Nissan has announced that it will launch Infiniti M35 – a hybrid gas electric version – in 2011. The Infiniti M35 will provide the curious relationship between hybrid vehicles and luxury. The Infinity M35 also will represent the brand’s first hybrid cars. Nissan’s leadership always made the argument that in the automobile industry, hybrids are not the solution to the environmental – and that only pure all electric cars are the answer – pure all electric cars represent the necessary shift to emissions and oil – free motoring. Nissan will launch its all electric Nissan Leaf in late 2010.
However, according to Infiniti’s press release states, the Infiniti M35 Hybrid has been designed and engineered with a electric power combo and a gas for the solution for luxury buyers without cut-off high end features, performance, and horsepower, but no longer wanting to guzzle gas.
This hybrid will combines a 3.5 liter V6 engine, electric motor, and a new lithium powered hybrid in 2011. In fact, Honda Company was unsuccessful in V6 Accord Hybrid performance, and the company has discontinued this production three year ago. But Lexus and Mercedes is quickly filling up with V6 hybrid sedans – Lexus GS 450h and Mercedes S400 Hybrid. The reasons are many customers has a great attention about spacious and comfortable but they would not like to called callous by their neighbor – the statement of the CEO of Daimler, Dieter Zetsche.
The Infiniti M35 Hybrid should be priced about $50,000 with tax rebate about $1,000. This luxury hybrid is expected available in spring 2011.
How Green is My Car? Since soaring oil prices and concerns over the environmental impact of car emissions, people have change their preference when it comes to choosing a new car. But what information there, what are the option available now, and what does the future hold?
Toyota Company, one of the leaders in developing vehicles driven using alternative fuels, there are approx. 740 million vehicles on our planet today. In 2020 it is estimated that this number is likely to almost double to 1.2 billion. That’s too many for our earth.
Each car – both petrol and diesel – produce carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas that pollutes our atmosphere and contribute to climate change. It is estimated that the average car emits around 4.5 tones of this gas every year. Ok, so a lot of cars and a lot of CO² but how green is my car?
So, we must do something to reduce carbon emissions we release in the air. The main reason is not only to reduce the amount of CO² it emits but considering current rumors of the price of oil reaching $100/barrel some day soon it will also help your wallet to breathe a little easier.
And now, I will concentrate on how to choose a car with ‘green car’ concerns in mind – ‘how green is my car?’ – Choices that will make a better world in the future.
Nowadays petrol and diesel engine is almost completely dominated the car industry. Fortunately, there are some alternative already available and many others coming in the not too distant future – with their concept – how green is my car?
These vehicles have two engines and use a combination of alternative and conventional fuels. This green cars is used a petrol engine when the car needs power to pull away from a stop to high speeds, and an electric running off a battery (with braking systems—which is charged when the car brakes and decelerates) is used at all other times such as cruising around a highway.
Hybrid cars are particularly beneficial due to their low emissions in cities and extremely quiet. The most popular hybrid and the only model available in Indonesian is the Toyota Prius which boasts an extremely impressive fuel efficiency of under 5 liters/100km. ~how green is my car?~
There are two great benefits of electric cars; they have zero emissions and extraordinarily cheap to run. It is of course important to bear in mind that the electricity that they’re using may have been generated by a highly polluting coal powered station, but they we can’t have it all.
One of the most intriguing and bizarre looking is the G-Whiz. This little car, developed by GoinGreen, can be plugged into standard electrical wall sockets and takes 6 hours to recharge. According to GoinGreen the cost of the electricity to run this car for one year is the equivalent cost of just one tank of petrol.
But there are some major drawbacks with this technology. First is a question of range; the G-Whiz for example can only travel for 70km before needing to be recharged. The second issue is one of power; with top speed of just 70km/hr – electric cars are simply no match in terms of top speeds, to petrol and diesel powered vehicles.
Despite these significant drawbacks this green cars, with its suitability for short commuter trips, could I believe have a major impact in our cities. The drivers will exempt from road tax, congestion charges and parking costs. With these savings in mind the G-Whiz is not only the cleanest form of commuter transport but it’s also the cheapest. ~how green is my car? ~
Hydrogen Fuel Cells
Although still a relatively new technology it is thought that this will be the future fuel of choice. Fuel cells work by making electricity via a chemical reaction between hydrogen (stored in liquid form in the fuel cell) and oxygen (from the air). The only by-product of this reaction is water, carbon emissions are zero.
There are of course still some significant drawbacks to this technology which need to be addressed before we see the demise of the petrol engine. These include; range – which, accordingly to Toyota, is currently limited to 300km; cost – until economies of scale come into play this will continue to be an expensive technology; refueling network – current petrol stations will need to install hydrogen tanks and pumps. ~how green is my car? ~
The air car, also known as the Mini-CAT or City Cat, can be refueled in minutes from an air compressor at specially equipped gas stations. Empty tank can be filled back in the place where only the special time in three minutes. Charging can also be done at home using your own compressor that is available in the car. Only with connect to electricity, tank will filled within four hours. More over the refill of its carbon fiber cylinder with 340 liters of air at 4350 PSI should not cost more then a twitter $2 for these air powered cars, and this car can reach up to 120 miles for an estimated $2 tank fill.
The car features a fiberglass body and a revolutionary electrical system and is completely computer-controlled. It is powered by the expansion of compressed air, using no combustion at all, and the exhaust is entirely clean and cool enough for use in the internal air conditioning system. ~how green is my car? ~
Parting Words
So there we have it, if you’re thinking of getting a new car and want to go as green as possible, ask to yourself how green is my car? Buy small or buy hybrid? Or just sit on your hands for a few more years and wait for the technology to catch up with your needs, both financial and vehicular, the choice is yours. ~how green is my car? ~
